A's Nab Lowrie; Astros Continue To Stockpile In 5 Player Deal - Gary Armida's Blog

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A's Nab Lowrie; Astros Continue To Stockpile In 5 Player Deal Stuck

Posted on February 5, 2013 at 09:03 AM.

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They are two teams with two very different objectives for the 2013 season. Before the 2012 season, the two organizations seemed to be doing the same thing as the Oakland A�s were dealing players to complete the quest of getting cheaper and stocking the farm system when another playoff run could be made. The Astros were really a barren organization and had to completely transform itself by selling off any and all veteran players. General Manager Jeff Luhnow began that process and continued throughout the 2012 season. Billy Beane didn�t have to complete that task as his young A�s won the American League West division on the last day of the season.

Now, the A�s are looking at a realistic chance of getting to a World Series in 2013 while the Astros are putting the finishing touches on their massive organizational reboot. The two got together on a late winter, five player trade that highlighted their respective 2013 objectives. The Astros sent shortstop/utility man Jed Lowrie along with reliever Fernando Rodriguez to the A�s in exchange for first baseman/outfielder Chris Carter, pitching prospect Brad Peacock, and catching prospect Max Stassi.

Jed Lowrie gives the A�s something that most small market teams don�t ever have: depth. A capable shortstop who posted a .336 wOBA and 111 wRC+ in 97 games last season with 16 home runs, Lowrie isn�t penciled in to start anywhere for the A�s. Japanese import Hiroyuki Nakajima is slated to start at shortstop, while second base will be a competition between Jemile Weeks and Scott Sizemore. Third base also seems to be taken by Josh Donaldson, Sizemore or Adam Rosales. But, Lowrie gives the A�s insurance in case someone fails. Nakajima could fail to make the transition to America; everyone else up for a job is unproven.

The downside of Lowrie is what prompted the Red Sox to trade him to the Astros last winter. He has proven to be injury prone as his 97 games played last season are a career high. Whether it is simply bad luck or a real problem with staying healthy, Lowrie has missed large chunks of time in every season of his Major League career. It is a worry and likely why his value isn�t higher.

When healthy, Lowrie has shown above average on base skills and solid power. In 55 games during the 2010 season, he posted a .907 OPS. Last season, he hit .244/.331/.438 with 18 doubles and 16 home runs. For his career, he has compiled a 10.1% walk rate and an 18.2% strikeout rate. While the strikeout rate has decreased a bit over the past couple of seasons, his walk rate has remained steady. Additionally, he has always made above average contact--83.7% for his career.

Making the deal even better for Oakland is the likelihood that Lowrie will be a utility man. His worst defensive position is shortstop. Last season, he posted a minus-3 DRS and hasn�t been above average according to UZR since 2009. But, both metrics show him to be a plus defender at every other infield position. With drastic splits that favor the switch hitter against left handed pitching, Manager Bob Melvin now has options at each of his infield positions as the rest of the infield candidates are right handed (with the exception of first base candidate Brandon Moss).

Along with Lowrie comes 28 year reliever Fernando Rodriguez. The 2012 season looks ugly at first glance as the right hander posted a 2-10 record along with a 5.37 ERA in 71 appearances. But, his FIP was a much more palatable 4.22, much like his 2011 FIP of 4.23 when his ERA was 3.96. Over the past two seasons, he has posted a 9.89 K/9 ratio and has elicited swings and misses with pitches in the strike zone at a 16.2 percent rate. But, Rodriguez has exhibited severe control problems--5.16 BB/9 and 4.35 BB/9 in the last two seasons--and is a flyball pitcher. But, he throws a 93-94 MPH fastball and the spacious Coliseum could help with the fly balls. With the A�s deep bullpen, Rodriguez won�t be in high leverage situations and, like most hard throwing relievers, could put it together for a season.

The Astros continue to accumulate talent while paring down their payroll. With this trade, the Astros� payroll stands at slightly less than $25 million for 2013. But, this was necessary as Jeff Luhnow continues to restock the organization. The Astros� plan is working as just three years ago, they had the worst farm system in the sport. Now, they are considered to be a top five system by most experts. This trade doesn�t yield any sure bets, but it does add three interesting players who have some ceiling left in their development.

The most immediate impactful name will be Chris Carter, the 25 year old first baseman/outfielder. Carter finally got an extended chance at the Major League level and was one of the reasons for the A�s run. In 67 games, the 6�4� right handed batter hit .239/.350/.514 with 12 doubles and 16 home runs. It was the first time that the power he displayed in the Minor Leagues translated in the Majors. Carter figures to benefit from a full-time opportunity in Houston while his playing time looked to be limited with the deep A�s roster. Entering his age 26 season, Carter has displayed power throughout his Minor League career and will now presumably get a chance to be a regular. Last season, he showed a better approach against left handed pitchers as he posted a .241/.404/.494 as opposed to his .237/.311/.526 line against right handers. At best, Carter becomes a slightly above average power hitter either as a regular or as part of a platoon.

Just last winter, right hander Brad Peacock was one of the central figures in the Gio Gonzalez trade. Peacock was coming off of his best professional season, posting a 2.39 ERA, 6.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 10.9 K/9 between double and triple-A. But, the right hander posted a disastrous 2012 season that included a 6.01 ERA, 9.8 H/9, and 4.4 BB/9. The only positive part of his season was that he could still elicit the strikeout, posting a rate of 9.3 K/9 and that his 4.01 FIP indicates a bit of bad luck. With the A�s starting pitcher depth, parting with Peacock doesn�t hurt their depth. The Astros are betting that 2012 was an anomaly and that the improving 2011 season was really where Peacock was heading. The Astros will have to solve the walk problem, but he is a strikeout pitcher who has shown he can miss bats. He likely starts the season at triple-A, but it wouldn�t be a surprise to see him at some point this season in Houston. For the long term, he projects as number three or four starter.

The Astros also receive Max Stassi, a 22 year old catching prospect who hit .268/.331/.468 with 18 doubles and 15 home runs at the high a-ball level. Stassi is prone to the strikeout and has battled injuries, but he is still young, has good power, and he is a catcher. He�ll get every opportunity to develop and could be a solid Major League catcher.

There will be some debate as to whether or not the Astros received enough for Jed Lowrie. Lowrie is a valuable hitter, considering his defensive skill set. But, he just hasn�t proven to be able to stay on the field during his five years at the Major League level. That drives down his value a bit. In that context, Luhnow has acquired three interesting players. None are sure things, but Carter is a power hitter who could become a solid regular. Or, perhaps, he is a platoon player. If Peacock shows that 2012 was the aberration and becomes a solid middle of the rotation starter, the Astros did well. Solid, middle of the rotation starters aren�t easy to acquire. And, Stassi could be serviceable.

These are the chances that the Astros have to take and it is the similar method that Luhnow has executed with his other trades. He has dealt his thin Major League talent and has received multiple young players in return. He hasn�t acquired stars or elite prospects, but he has given the Astros depth and some promise. Even if just one or two of the players he has acquired over the past two years reaches potential, his trades have benefitted the organization.

The A�s add quality depth in Jed Lowrie, who could be a regular. His presence gives the A�s the ultimate backup plan in case their projected starters don�t work out. He also gives many different lineup advantages, assuming he can stay healthy. This is the type of trade that a team with World Series aspirations makes. Beane�s entire offseason has been about adding diversity and depth. He�s acquired Chris Young, John Jaso, Nakajima, and now Lowrie to achieve those goals. They enter the 2013 season a much better team than they were last season.

For the context of their upcoming seasons, both teams get good value and exactly what they need.

Gary Armida is a staff writer for Operation Sports. He also writes more baseball at fullcountpitch.com. Join the conversation on twitter @garyarmida.